Even newer thinking on Bitcoin

When I looked at Bitcoin in 2017, I felt that Bitcoin could well go to 142'000 USD which would put the worldwide value of Bitcoin at half the value of gold.

Not a bad assumption, I still think today. So I wanted to check this number with another value. Stocks are priced high these days. If there are more promising alternatives, many would sell their shares in companies where profits are only a small fraction of their current market value. What if Bitcoin becomes this place of more attractive value storage? How much value could be transferred from stocks to Bitcoin?

According to the World Bank, the current value of all stocks worldwide is 43 trillion . If 10% or roughly 4 trillion of that value would be turned into Bitcoins, the price of Bitcoin would need to increase by 189'000 USD. I was close with my estimate back than. Of course, markets are irrational and tend to overshoot. So it could be even more.

But let’s stay real. At price levels between 142'000 and 189'000 USD per Bitcoin, I would definitely start to exit.